2006
KN4LF DAILY LF/MF/HF
FREQUENCY RADIO PROPAGATION OUTLOOK ARCHIVE
Standard
Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" and error prone public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2006 by Thomas
F. Giella, KN4LF. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as
proper credit is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes
only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
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KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-012
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Friday 07/28/2006 At 0000 UTC Valid 07/28-08/03/2006
DISCUSSION-
For 07/21-27/2006-
Overall the period was exceptionally quiet. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (Kp-0-2) for 96 consecutive hours!
Globally with the daily sunspot number and related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s were further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there was east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
Sunspot group #10901 was the only visible sunspot group and did not provide an HF propagation boost on 10-20 meters during the period. However it did hold the daily solar flux index above 69.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America occurred, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia.
There was minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere.
There was no appreciable night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere.
There was normal daytime signal absorption and little signal absorption on night time propagation conditions on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
For 07/28-08/03/2006-
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s will be further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit :
#10899 on 07/31/2006 with an Alpha magnetic signature.
This time around sunspot group #10899 should be smaller and more quiet and probably will not provide HF propagation with a boost on 10-20 meters.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia.
I expect some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
I expect minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere.
I expect no appreciable night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. This equates to some of the best MF propagation conditions so far in the winter season.
I expect normal daytime signal absorption and little signal absorption on night time propagation conditions on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
07/28-08/03/2006 Kp 0-3, isolated Kp- 4-5.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled (Kp- 3) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period active (Kp- 4) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp- 5) geomagnetic storming conditions “MAY OCCUR”.
During the period moderate (Kp- 6) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period strong (Kp- 7) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period severe (Kp- 8) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period extreme (Kp- 9) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “LOW”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “HIGH”, #233 northern hemisphere, #234 trans equatorial.
Daily solar flux index levels (SFI) should range between 72-78.
The probability of a small C class solar flare is “MODERATE”.
The probability of a large M class solar flare is “LOW”.
The probability of a huge X class solar flare is “LOW”.
The NOAA/SEC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity to be NEGATIVE from 07/28-08/03/2006.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Poor for ham signals and broadcast signals.
Nighttime- Poor for ham signals and fair for broadcast signals.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Good to occasionally fair.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect FAIR "Northern Hemisphere"
domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100
miles.
*Expect POOR TO FAIR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO"
south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR “ Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
-Expect GOOD TO EXCELLENT "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect EXCELLENT conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be GOOD.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO
FAIR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be EXCELLENT.
“Low
latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be
GOOD.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO FAIR.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp http://www.uspln.com/images/uspln.jpg
A global view of near real time lightning strike data:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded
fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical
warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE" thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts
and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical warm
core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 1800 UTC 07/21/2006 TO 2359 UTC 07/27/2006
Sunspot Groups-
No partially or totally geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups contained a twisted magnetic signature capable of producing large M class and huge X class solar flares.
However sunspot group #10901 did produce several very small B class solar flares and one small C class solar flare.
Solar Flux Readings- 72.2 to 77.2
SEC Sunspot Number- 00 to 21
Solar Wind Speed- 270 to 365
Solar Flares- C-1 M-0 X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux-
A1.7
to A4.8
Dst Index- -30 to +03 via G3NYK, -52 to -13 via Kyoto
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV
(10+o)- 0
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Holes- CH #233
Polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths did not occur due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index had been at quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0-15.
The Kp index had been at quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 3.
The Boulder mid latitude K index had been at quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 3.
The high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to moderate geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 6, Troms, Norway.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
From http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
11.) Geomagnetic/Ionospheric Storm-
A worldwide disturbance of the Earth's magnetosphere and or ionosphere, induced
by direct connection to the Sun's interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), distinct
from regular diurnal variations. Basically it's a precipitation of electrons
trapped within our magnetosphere, as the electrons collide. The end result is a
reduction of the MUF of the F2 layer. (See definition #3. Equatorial Ring
Current). (See definition #4. Coronal Mass Ejection). (See definition #5.
Coronal Hole). (See definition #6. Solar Filament).
((((Note! Unfortunately elevated Kp
indices of as little as a 3 will create absorptive conditions for medium
frequency signal propagation on higher propagation paths)))).
Initial phase of a geomagnetic storm is that period when there may be an
increase of the middle latitude horizontal intensity.
Main phase of a geomagnetic storm is that period when the horizontal magnetic
field at middle latitudes is generally decreasing.
Recovery phase of a geomagnetic storm is that period when the depressed
northward field component returns to normal levels.
By the way effects of the solar wind on the magnetosphere decreases as we
approach the Summer/Winter solstice and increase at the Fall/Spring Equinox.
Why? Basically it's the orientation of Earth's magnetic field with respect to
the Interplanetary Magnetic Field within the Solar Wind. When solar material and
shock waves reach Earth their effects may be enhanced or dampened depending on
the angle at which they arrive.
The Wang-Sheeley Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) Model is used to predict
Sun's IMF polarity. When the polarity of the IMF is negative a visible mid
latitude Aurora display is likely as a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) strikes the
Earth's magnetic field.
SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-011
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Thursday 07/20/2006 At 1900 UTC Valid 07/21-27/2006
DISCUSSION-
For 07/14-20/2006-
Overall the period was exceptionally quiet. Through 1800 UTC on 07/20/2006 we experienced 6 hours of active geomagnetic conditions (Kp-4) on 07/14/2006, due to residual effects of non geoeffective southern hemisphere recurrent Coronal Hole, #231.
Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (Kp-0-2) for 99 consecutive hours and the background x-ray flux was at the A0.0 level for 198 consecutive hours.
Globally with the daily sunspot number and related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s were further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there was east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
Sunspot group #10900 was the only visible sunspot group and did not provide a HF propagation boost on 10-20 meters during the period. However it did hold the daily solar flux index about 69.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America occurred, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia.
There was minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere.
There was no appreciable night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere.
There was normal daytime signal absorption and little signal absorption on night time propagation conditions on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
For 07/21-27/2006-
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s will be further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit :
10897 on 07/21/06.
10898 on 07/24/06.
During the last solar rotation solar region group #10898 had a beta-gamma-delta twisted magnetic signature that released 7 C class solar flares and 1 M class solar flare.
This time around sunspot group #10898 should be smaller and more quiet but may still provide HF propagation a small boost on 10-20 meters during the period.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia.
I expect some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
I expect minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere.
I expect no appreciable night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. This equates to some of the best MF propagation conditions so far in the winter season.
I expect normal daytime signal absorption and little signal absorption on night time propagation conditions on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
07/21-27/2006 Kp 0-3, isolated Kp- 4.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled (Kp- 3) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period active (Kp- 4) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp- 5) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period moderate (Kp- 6) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period strong (Kp- 7) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period severe (Kp- 8) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period extreme (Kp- 9) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “LOW”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “HIGH”, #232.
Daily solar flux index levels (SFI) should range between 69-74.
The probability of a small C class solar flare is “MODERATE”.
The probability of a large M class solar flare is “LOW”.
The probability of a huge X class solar flare is “LOW”.
The NOAA/SEC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity to be NEGATIVE from 07/21-27/2006.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Poor for ham signals and broadcast signals.
Nighttime- Poor for ham signals and fair for broadcast signals.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Good to occasionally fair.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect FAIR "Northern Hemisphere"
domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100
miles.
*Expect POOR TO FAIR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO"
south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR “ Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
-Expect GOOD TO EXCELLENT "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect EXCELLENT conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be GOOD.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO
FAIR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be EXCELLENT.
“Low
latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be
GOOD.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO FAIR.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp http://www.uspln.com/images/uspln.jpg
A global view of near real time lightning strike data:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded
fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical
warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE" thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts
and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical warm
core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 1800 UTC 07/13/2006 TO 1800 UTC 07/19/2006
Sunspot Groups-
No partially or totally geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups contained a twisted magnetic signature capable of producing large M class and huge X class solar flares.
However sunspot group #10900 did produce a couple of small B class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 70.2 to 72.4
SEC Sunspot Number- 15 to 26
Solar Wind Speed- 270 to 558
Solar Flares- B- 2 C-0 M-0 X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux-
A0.0
to A1.0
Dst Index- -35 to +07 via G3NYK, -65 to -12 via Kyoto
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV
(10+o)- 0
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Holes- 0
Polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths did not occur due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index had been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0-32.
The Kp index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The Boulder mid latitude K index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
From http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
10.) MF
Radio Signal Propagation Path Skewing-
MF radio signal propagation path skewing occurs due to changes in the horizontal
electron gradient. Put in simple layman's terms the transmitted RF signal will
"always" seek to propagate along the path with least absorption, which almost
always means via a darkness path.
As an example a signal transmitted from Norway to New England, which is a polar great circle path, will be directly absorbed most of the time by the Aurora Oval, with the remaining medium frequency signal skirting south and then west on the darkness path, arriving in New England from say the SE rather then the expected NE path. Also medium frequency skewed propagation paths are the norm rather then the exception, especially past approximately 3200 miles.
SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-010
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Friday 07/14/2006 At 1900 UTC Valid 07/14-20/2006
DISCUSSION-
For 07/07-13/2006-
Overall the period was quiet. Through 2359 UTC on 07/06/2006 we experienced 12 hours of active geomagnetic conditions (Kp-4), due to a partially geoeffective (Earth directed) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) and also a southern hemisphere recurrent Coronal Hole, #231.
NOTE! On 07/12/2006 the daily solar flux index fell to 68.5. This is the first sub 70 daily solar flux index reading since July 14,1997. This is a sign that we are now “approaching” the bottom of solar cycle #23. NOAA/SEC forecasts the bottom in January 2007. My forecast calls for the bottom in June 2007.
Globally with the daily sunspot number and related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s were further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there was east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America occurred, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia.
There was minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere.
There was no appreciable night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere.
There was normal daytime signal absorption and little signal absorption on night time propagation conditions on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
For 07/14-20/2006-
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s will be further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit :
None.
No new sunspot groups will give HF propagation a small boost on 10-20 meters during the period.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia.
I expect some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
I expect minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere.
I expect no appreciable night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere. This equates to some of the best MF propagation conditions so far in the winter season.
I expect normal daytime signal absorption and little signal absorption on night time propagation conditions on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
07/14-20/2006 Kp 0-3, occasional Kp- 4.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled (Kp- 3) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period active (Kp- 4) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp- 5) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period moderate (Kp- 6) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period strong (Kp- 7) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period severe (Kp- 8) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period extreme (Kp- 9) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “LOW”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “LOW”.
Daily solar flux index levels (SFI) should range between 66-75.
The probability of a small C class solar flare is “LOW”.
The probability of a large M class solar flare is “LOW”.
The probability of a huge X class solar flare is “LOW”.
The NOAA/SEC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity to be positive from 07/14-18/2006.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Poor for ham signals and broadcast signals.
Nighttime- Fair for ham signals and good for broadcast signals.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Good to occasionally fair.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect FAIR "Northern Hemisphere"
domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100
miles.
*Expect POOR TO FAIR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO"
south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR “ Northern Hemisphere”
domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
-Expect GOOD TO EXCELLENT "Southern
Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to
approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect EXCELLENT conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be GOOD.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO
FAIR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be EXCELLENT.
“Low
latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be
GOOD.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO FAIR.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD TO
EXCELLENT.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp http://www.uspln.com/images/uspln.jpg
A global view of near real time lightning strike data:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded
fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical
warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE" thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts
and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical warm
core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions
can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall
season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 1800 UTC 07/06/2006 TO 2359 UTC 07/13/2006
Sunspot Groups-
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot group #10898 contained a beta-gamma-delta twisted magnetic signature capable of producing large M class and huge X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 68.5 to 80.3
SEC Sunspot Number- 11 to 35
Solar Wind Speed- 335-582
Solar Flares- C-3 M-0 X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux-
A0.0
to A5.9
Dst Index- -50 to +/-00 via G3NYK, -79 to +/-00 via Kyoto
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV
(10+o)- 1
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 1
Geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Holes- 1 #231
Polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0-27.
The Kp index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The Boulder mid latitude K index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to moderate geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 6.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
From http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
9.) Electron Gyro Frequency Absorption-
Unfortunately medium frequencies fall within or very near the electron
gyro-frequency which is in the approximate range of 630 to 1630 kHz and of
course the AM broadcast band and 160 meter band is very close to these electron
gyro-frequencies. There is a direct correlation between the strength Earth's
magnetic field lines and electron gyro frequencies.
Basically, the electron gyro-frequency is a measure of the interaction between
an electron in the Earth's atmosphere and the Earth's magnetic field. The closer
a transmitted a medium frequency carrier or sideband wave frequency is to the
electron gyro-frequency, the more energy that is absorbed by the gyro electrons
from that carrier wave frequency. This is especially true for medium frequency
signals traveling perpendicular to the Earth's magnetic field, meaning high
latitude NW and NE propagation paths. Unfortunately this form of medium
frequency signal absorption is ALWAYS present.
SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-009A
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Monday 07/10/2006 At 1500 UTC
A weak solar wind shock was observed at SOHO on Sunday 07/11/2006 at 2104 UTC, with solar wind speed increasing abruptly from 350 to 450 km/s. This shock was the arrival of the partially geoeffective full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) that was expelled by the M2.5 class solar flare from partially geo-effective (Earth facing) sunspot group #10898 on Thursday 07/06/2006 at 0813 UTC.
In my propagation outlook #2006-009 on Thursday 07/06/2006 I said, "It’s is difficult to predict how much of an impact this partially geoeffective CME may have on Earth’s magnetic field but minor (Kp-5) to moderate (Kp-6) geomagnetic storming conditions may occur beginning on 07/09/2006". Since the arrival of the CME only active (Kp-4) geomagnetic conditions have occurred so my forecast was incorrect.
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-009
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Thursday 07/06/2006 At 1900 UTC Valid 07/07-13/2006
DISCUSSION-
For 06/23-7/06/2006-
The period was quiet until 07/05/2006. Through 1800 UTC today we have experienced 24 hours of active geomagnetic conditions (Kp-4) and 6 hours of minor geomagnetic storming conditions, due to trans-equatorial geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole #230.
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s were further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there was east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
However between 07/02-04/2006 solar flux values ranged between 87-92 thanks to sunspot group #10898. This did give HF conditions a small boost on 10-20 meters compared to recent weeks.
There was minor to moderate night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere.
There was minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere.
There was normal daytime signal absorption and little signal absorption on night time propagation conditions on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths through 07/04/2006. Thereafter increased signal absorption on night time propagation conditions on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths occurred.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
For 07/07-13/2006-
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s will be further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
However between 07/07-09/2006 sunspot group #10898 will continue to give HF propagation a small boost on 10-20 meters. Newly numbered sunspot group #10899 may have a similar impact during the period.
The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit :
#10895 on 07/08/2006 and #10896 on 07/10/2006.
#10896 may give HF propagation a small boost on 10-20 meters during the period.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia.
I expect some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
I expect minor to major night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere.
I expect minor to moderate night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Southern Hemisphere.
I expect minor daytime signal enhancement and moderate signal absorption on night time propagation conditions on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
NOTE !!! A large sized M2.5 class solar flare erupted from geo-effective (Earth facing) sunspot group #10898 beginning at 0813 UTC today. It also appears that a partially geoeffective full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was also expelled, with a speed of approximately 500km/s. An excessive number of energetic protons >10 MeV were also ejected and began arriving here at Earth this morning.
It’s is difficult to predict how much of an impact this partially geoeffective CME may have on Earth’s magnetic field but minor (Kp-5) to moderate (Kp-6) geomagnetic storming conditions may occur beginning on 07/09/2006.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
07/07-08/2006 Kp 0-2, isolated Kp- 3.
07/09-10/2006 Kp 4-5, possible Kp- 6.
07/11-13/206 Kp 3-4, isolated Kp- 5.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled (Kp- 3) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period active (Kp- 4) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp- 5) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period moderate (Kp- 6) geomagnetic storming conditions “ARE PROBABLE”.
During the period strong (Kp- 7) geomagnetic storming conditions “ARE IMPROBABLE”.
During the period severe to extreme (Kp- 8-9) geomagnetic storming conditions “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “HIGH”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “MODERATE”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a partially geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “MODERATE”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “HIGH, #231” between 07/07-09/2006.
Daily solar flux levels should range between 90-75.
The probability of a small C class solar flare is “HIGH”.
The probability of a large M class solar flare is “MEDIUM”.
The probability of a huge X class solar flare is “MEDIUM through 07/08/2006 then LOW”.
The NOAA/SEC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity to be slightly negative from 07/07-10/2006.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
07/07-08/2006
Daytime- Poor for ham signals and broadcast signals.
Nighttime- Fair for ham signals and good for broadcast signals.
07/09-10/2006
Daytime- Poor for ham signals and fair for broadcast signals.
Nighttime- Poor for ham signals and broadcast signals.
07/11-13/2006
Daytime- Poor for ham signals and broadcast signals.
Nighttime- Fair for ham signals and good for broadcast signals.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
07/07-08/2006
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Good to fair.
07/09-10/2006
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Fair.
High Latitude- Poor.
07/11-13/2006
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Good to fair.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect FAIR "Northern Hemisphere"
domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100
miles.
*Expect POOR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths
out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR TO GOOD“ Northern
Hemisphere” domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately
1100 miles.
-Expect GOOD TO FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect GOOD TO FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect FAIR conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be GOOD.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be POOR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO POOR.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO
POOR.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.
“Low
latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be
GOOD TO FAIR.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be GOOD TO FAIR.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO FAIR.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD TO FAIR.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO FAIR.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD TO
FAIR.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp http://www.uspln.com/images/uspln.jpg
A global view of near real time lightning strike data:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded
fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical
warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE" thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts
and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical warm
core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions
can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall
season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 1800 UTC 06/23/2006 TO 1800 UTC 07/06/2006
Sunspot Groups-
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot group #10898 located at S08W28 contained a beta-gamma-delta twisted magnetic signature capable of producing large M class and huge X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 70.9-92.0
SEC Sunspot Number- 0 to 40
Solar Wind Speed- 270 to 739
Solar Flares- C-4 M-1 X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux-
A0.0
to B1.2
Dst Index- -30 to +20 via G3NYK, -54 to 00 via Kyoto
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV
(10+o)- 1
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections-1
Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 1 #229, #230
Polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index had been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0-39.
The Kp index had been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
The Boulder mid latitude K index had been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
The high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to moderate geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 6.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
From http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
8.) E Valley-F Layer Propagation Ducting
Mechanism/Chordal Hop Propagation-
Antenna polarization plays a large role in the success of a long haul DX
contact. As a medium frequency RF signal traverses our planets magnetic lines of
force in a perpendicular manner on high and mid latitude paths say between W3
land and SM, higher angle horizontally polarized signals are more readily
absorbed then lower angle vertically polarized signals. On other paths on the
globe opposite results can be found, i.e. horizontally polarized signals suffer
less absorption on a propagation path between VK6 and W4.
You would expect a true long path QSO on 160 to be theoretically possible but
improbable on most paths during any season. However a G to VK long path might be
possible if the E-valley/F-layer ducting propagation mechanism or the Chordal
Hop propagation mechanism is involved. A 160 meter signal can traverse a
daylight path via these propagation modes if the transmitted signal enters/exits
at each end of the path at or near sunrise/sunset when the D layer ionization is
weak (ionospheric tilting).
The downward tilt of ionospheric layers is eastward at sunrise. As a result,
signals coming from the west are refracted downward at steeper angles and are
therefore heard better on higher angle antennas. The opposite is true at local
sunset.
A note though, the E-valley/Flayer ducting propagation mechanism does not exist
only during gray line periods. Internal Buoyancy/Gravity Waves (IBGW's) are a
source of the ducting mechanism and allow for occurrences of ducting along any
propagation path in total darkness. Measurement of the timing of arrival of
propagated MF RF signals demonstrates the existence of the ducting mechanism,
versus conventional numerous E layer land/ocean surface hops.
The majority of the time medium frequency RF signals in excess of approximately
3200 miles propagate via the E-valley/F-layer propagation mechanism or via the
Chordal Hop (mostly on HF) propagation mechanism. High solar flux values can aid
in long haul medium frequency propagation, as high solar flux values ensure a
strong F-layer half of the E-Valley/F-layer duct mechanism. Typically the
majority of transmit antenna's radiation must be focused between 40-60 deg. to
enter the E-Valley/F-layer duct.
If one is lucky enough to be on the receive end of a ducted medium frequency
signal due to an IBGW or two, a change in the vertical and/or horizontal
electron gradient will allow the RF to drop out of the duct at your QTH.
A note, high solar activity in the form of increased ionization created by
ultraviolet and X-ray radiation, can fill in the E-Valley/F-layer ducting region
with medium frequency absorptive ionization and interfere with the E-
Valley/F-layer ducting mechanism. In a sense the E/F layer duct is shut down and
the medium frequency RF signal can only propagate between the E-layer and
land/ocean surface, at a higher angle and with more signal loss. This closing of
the duct can be reciprocal on each end of the propagation path or one way only.
(((((When closing of the duct occurs the advantage of a low angle vertical
radiator is lost, with a higher takeoff angle horizontal dipole making the
contact still possible, albeit maybe weaker.)))))
Medium frequency radio waves possess elliptical polarization, with the signal
splitting into ordinary and extra-ordinary rays. These rays can propagate in or
out of phase, mainly out of phase. The out of phase extra-ordinary ray
represents a 50% power loss on the receive end of a propagation path.
SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-008
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Thursday 06/22/2006 At 1800 UTC Valid 06/23-29/2006
DISCUSSION-
For 06/16-22/2006-
The period was quiet. Through 1800 UTC today we have experienced 6 hours of active geomagnetic conditions (Kp-4), due to southern hemisphere geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole #228.
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s were further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there was east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
There was minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere. Night time MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters propagation conditions were good in the Southern Hemisphere, due to a low background X-ray flux level of A0.0.
There was normal daytime signal absorption and little signal absorption on night time propagation conditions on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
For 06/23-29/2006-
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s will be further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit :
None.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia.
I expect some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
I expect minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths in the Northern Hemisphere.
I expect good night time MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters propagation conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, due to a low background X-ray flux level of A0.0.
I expect normal daytime signal absorption and little signal absorption on night time propagation conditions on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
06/23-26/2006 Kp 0-2, isolated 3.
06/27-29/2006 Kp 3-4.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled (Kp 3) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period active (Kp 4) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp 5) geomagnetic storming “IS IMPROBABLE”.
During the period moderate (Kp 6) geomagnetic storming “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
During the period strong to extreme (Kp-7 9) geomagnetic storming “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “LOW”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “HIGH, #229” between 06/25-26/2006.
Daily solar flux levels should range between 68-75.
The chance of a small C class solar flare is “LOW”.
The chance of a large M class solar flare is “LOW”.
The chance of a huge X class solar flare is “LOW”.
The NOAA/SEC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity to be slightly negative from 06/23-26/2006.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Poor for ham and broadcast signals.
Nighttime- Fair for ham signals and good for broadcast signals.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Good to fair.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect FAIR "Northern Hemisphere"
domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100
miles.
*Expect FAIR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths
out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR“ Northern Hemisphere”
domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
-Expect GOOD "Southern Hemisphere"
domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100
miles.
+Expect GOOD "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect FAIR TO GOOD conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be GOOD.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO
GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
“Low
latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be
GOOD TO FAIR.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp http://www.uspln.com/images/uspln.jpg
A global view of near real time lightning strike data:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded
fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical
warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE" thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts
and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical warm
core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions
can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall
season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 1800 UTC 06/15/2006 TO 1800 UTC 06/22/2006
Sunspot Groups-
No geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups contained twisted magnetic signatures capable of M or X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 72.1-76.0
SEC Sunspot Number- 0 to 42
Solar Wind Speed- 247 to 696
Solar Flares- C-3 M-0 X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux-
A0.0
to A5.2
Dst Index- -20 to +10 via G3NYK, -53 to -8 via Kyoto
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV
(10+o)- 0
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections-0
Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 1 #228
No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0-22.
The Kp index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The Boulder mid latitude K index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to moderate geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 6.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
From http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
This week instead of a publishing a propagation lesson I’m taking the opportunity to state my professional opinion on some recently released solar cycle #24 predictions and also how I think that upcoming solar cycle 24 will pan out.
“Politics Invades Space Weather Research and Forecasting”
First of all in spite of what you may have read on the subject recently, we are still not at the very bottom of current solar cycle 23. It is still approximately 9-12 months away.
In March 2006 NCAR Research Scientists predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would be 30-50% larger than current Solar Cycle 23.
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml .Now NASA Solar Physicists have made a long range prediction for Solar Cycle’s 24 and 25. However long range forecasting whether it be space or terrestrial weather including climate change (global warming) is very shaky at best.
We still do not totally understand the conveyor belt concept mentioned in the article http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10may_longrange.htm , so as explained in the news releases are not fact but good theory. Unfortunately our knowledge of the inner workings of the Sun is still very limited.
But unfortunately politics has overwhelmed science at the university/government level, so proclamations such as these have to be taken with a grain of salt. The same holds true for the lie of man induced climate change or global warming as the sensationalist media likes to call it. http://www.kn4lf.com/globalwarminglie.htm
The U.S. Congress is looking to cut monies out of the federal budget in an attempt to offset the hundred's of billions it has spent so far in Iraq. So monies allocated for solar, space weather and geomagnetic research and forecasting is once again on the chopping block like in 2005, NASA's budget too. This fact seems to spawn release of news articles like the two mentioned above. It's a "look at what we are doing that's important" so please don't cut our funding thing.
Of course I'm opposed to reducing monies for solar, space weather and geomagnetic research and forecasting because this is a very important realm that needs to be better understood, as space weather events damage satellites, land based electrical grids, oil pipelines, can harm passengers on high altitude commercial flights and astronauts, as well as people on the ground in the polar regions. But I'm also opposed to politically motivated scientists that state theory as fact. As the saying goes, "you can't get good water out of a poisoned well".
By the way as a retired Space Plasma Physicist that conducted space weather research for a number federal government agencies, my take on what we can expect for Solar Cycle 24 is as follows.
It appears that Solar Cycle 24 will be the "smallest" not largest in many cycles. We are currently in a multidecadal oscillation that features ever smaller sunspot cycles. http://www.spacew.com/news/05Mar2005/index.php
SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-007
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Thursday 06/15/2006 At 1800 UTC Valid 06/16-22/2006
DISCUSSION-
For 06/09-15/2006-
The period was quiet, with some moderate activity beginning on 06/15/2006 due to southern hemisphere geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole #228. Through 1700 UTC today we have experienced 3 hours of active geomagnetic conditions (Kp-4) and 6 hours of minor geomagnetic storming conditions (Kp-5). Geoeffective sunspot group #10892 has produced 3 C class solar flares.
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s were further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there was east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
There was minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths.
There was minor daytime signal enhancement and minor nighttime signal absorption on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
For 06/16-22/2006-
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s will be further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit :
#’s 10886 on the 16th, 10889 on the 17th. #10887 on the 20th. None will enhance F layer propagation.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia.
I expect some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
I expect moderate to minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths.
I expect minor daytime signal enhancement and nighttime signal absorption on the LF band on high and mid latitude propagation paths, with a reverse pattern beginning on 06/17/2006.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
06/16/2006 Kp 4-5, isolated 6.
06/17-22//2006 Kp 0-3.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled (Kp 3) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period active (Kp 4) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp 5) geomagnetic storming “IS PROBABLE”.
During the period moderate (Kp 6) geomagnetic storming “IS POSSIBLE”.
During the period strong to extreme (Kp-7 9) geomagnetic storming “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “LOW”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “HIGH, #228”.
Daily solar flux levels should range between 80-70.
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot group #10892 currently contains an alpha magnetic signature capable of producing C class solar flares. The group will rotate around the west limb of the Sun on 06/16/2006.
The chance of a small C class solar flare is “HIGH BECOMING LOW”.
The chance of a large M class solar flare is “LOW”.
The chance of a huge X class solar flare is “LOW”.
The NOAA/SEC Wang-Sheeley-Arge model forecasts the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity to be slightly positive through 06/19/2006.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Poor to fair for ham signals and fair to good for broadcast signals.
Nighttime- Poor for ham signals and fair for broadcast signals.
I expect the pattern to begin reversing itself on 06/17/2006.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Fair, then becoming good beginning on 06/17/2006.
High Latitude- Poor, then fair to good beginning on 06/17/2006.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect POOR TO FAIR "Northern
Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to
approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect POOR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths
out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect GOOD TO FAIR “Northern
Hemisphere” domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately
1100 miles.
-Expect FAIR TO GOOD "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect GOOD TO FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect FAIR TO GOOD conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be GOOD.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be POOR TO
FAIR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO
GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
“Low
latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be
FAIR to GOOD.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere
“high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be FAIR TO GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be FAIR TO
GOOD.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp http://www.uspln.com/images/uspln.jpg
A global view of near real time lightning strike data:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded
fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical
warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE" thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts
and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical warm
core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions
can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall
season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 0000 UTC 06/09/2006 TO 1700 UTC 06/15/2006
Sunspot Groups-
No geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups contained twisted magnetic signatures capable of M or X class solar flares.
But geoeffective sunspot group #10892 did produce 3 C class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 73.5 to 78.2
SEC Sunspot Number- 23 to 46
Solar Wind Speed- 337 to 719
Solar Flares- C-3 M-0 X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- A2.1 to A3.6
Dst Index- -20 to 0 via G3NYK, -50 to -14 via Kyoto
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV
(10+o)- 0
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections-0
Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 1 #228
No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0-18.
The Kp index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
The Boulder mid latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to moderate geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 6.
The high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to moderate geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 6.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
From http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
7.) Correlation Of Energetic Protons,
Solar Flux and Ap & Kp Indices With Medium Frequencies-
I've been observing energetic proton levels, as well as the Ap & Kp indices for
30 years and see a direct correlation between high energetic proton levels above
10 MeV (10+0) and poor propagation on high and at times mid latitude MW paths at
day AND night, where as A & K don't as readily correlate. (See paragraph three
of definition #2. Aurora Oval Blockage, Absorption And Refraction and definition
#7. High Latitude Path Skewing), for a further explanation on the lack of
correlation of Ap & Kp indices with medium frequency propagation conditions.
High solar flux values are "incorrectly" considered to be detrimental to
medium-frequency signals both domestic and TA/TP, as more absorption can be
present as the transmitted signal makes two trips through the D layer, near
sunrise and sunset. However most medium wave frequency RF signals in excess of
3100 miles are propagated via the E valley/F layer ducting and/or Chordal
Hop/Pederson Ray propagation mechanism and a high solar flux value ensures a
strong E and F-layer duct mechanism. Actually a solar flux of at least 100 is
needed for the E valley/F layer ducting mode.
The main reason that MF radio propagation "seems to be better" at the bottom of
a sunspot cycle is not so much due to lower solar flux levels BUT due to much
less geomagnetic activity.
Keep in mind though that the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a
"reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at
this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are
used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better
indicator is the interrelated background x-ray flux. See #1e & f above.
An elevated energetic proton flux level greater then (10+0) on 160 meters and
greater then (10-1) on the medium frequency broadcast band creates noticeably
increased winter time day and year round night time D layer absorption of medium
wave frequencies, especially on high latitude propagation paths but it can also
negatively impact mid latitudes, depending on the intensity of the event.
Elevated energetic proton events too small to be categorized as a Polar Cap
Absorption event (PCA) can still impact high and at times mid latitude medium
frequency propagation paths in the form of excessive D layer absorption.
((((Note, high latitude medium frequency radio propagation paths can still be
disturbed for days and up to weeks, following the end of an official >10 MeV
(10+0) proton event.))))
SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-006
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Thursday 06/08/2006 At 1800 UTC Valid 06/09-15/2006
DISCUSSION-
The period 06/02-05/2006 was quiet, with some minor activity on 06/06-08/2006. Through 1800 UTC on 06/08/2006 we had experienced 33 hours of active geomagnetic (Kp-4) conditions and 6 hours of minor geomagnetic storming conditions (Kp-5).
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s were further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there was east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
There was minor to moderate night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths.
There was minor daytime signal enhancement and minor nighttime signal absorption on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s will be further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit :
#’s 10884 and 10885 on the 13th. #10884 may enhance F layer propagation.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to Europe/West Asia and also Australia to Eastern Asia.
I expect some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 through 20 meters.
I expect moderate to minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths.
I expect minor daytime signal enhancement and nighttime signal absorption on the LF band on high and mid latitude propagation paths, with a reverse pattern after the 12th.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
06/09-10/2006 Kp 3-4, isolated 5.
06/11-15//2006 Kp 0-3.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled (Kp 3) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period active (Kp 4) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp 5) geomagnetic storming “IS POSSIBLE”.
During the period moderate (Kp 6) geomagnetic storming “IS “IMPROBABLE”.
During the period strong to extreme (Kp-7 9) geomagnetic storming “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “LOW”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “LOW TO MODERATE”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW TO MODERATE”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “LOW”.
Daily solar flux levels should range between 88-74.
Soon to be geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot group #10892 currently contains a beta-delta twisted magnetic signature capable producing C and M class solar flares.
Soon to be geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot group #10893 may also be a threat in future days.
The chance of a small C class solar flare is “HIGH”.
The chance of a large M class solar flare is “LOW TO MEDIUM”.
The chance of a huge X class solar flare is “LOW”.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity will be slightly negative -1 to -4 during the forecast period.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Poor for ham signals and fair for broadcast signals.
Nighttime- Poor to fair for ham signals and fair for broadcast signals.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Fair back to Good.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect POOR TO FAIR "Northern
Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to
approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect POOR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths
out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR TO GOOD “Northern
Hemisphere” domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately
1100 miles.
-Expect GOOD "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect GOOD TO FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect FAIR TO GOOD conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be GOOD.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be POOR TO
FAIR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO
GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
“Low
latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be
FAIR to GOOD.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be FAIR TO
GOOD.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp http://www.uspln.com/images/uspln.jpg
A global view of near real time lightning strike data:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded
fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical
warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE" thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts
and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical warm
core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions
can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall
season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 0000 UTC 06/02/2006 TO 1800 UTC 06/08/2006
Sunspot Groups-
No geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups contained twisted magnetic signatures capable of M or X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 74.4 to 83.4
SEC Sunspot Number- 00 to 48
Solar Wind Speed- 323 to 719
Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- A2.8 to A6.0
Dst Index- -30 to +10 via G3NYK, -5 to -63 via Kyoto
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV
(10+o)- 0
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections-0
Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 1 #227
No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0-48.
The Kp index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
The Boulder mid latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The high latitude K index had been at quiet geomagnetic levels to moderate geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 6.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
From http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm
6.) Solar Filament-
A relatively cool and dense ribbon of gas held together by solar magnetic
fields. From Earth they usually appear as dark lines across the face of the Sun.
At times the magnetic lines holding the filament open up creating a tremendous
eruption similar in size and impact of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). (See
definition #4. Coronal Mass Ejection). (See definition #11.
Geomagnetic/Ionospheric Storm).
SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-005
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Friday 06/02/2006 At 0000 UTC Valid 06/02-08/2006
DISCUSSION-
Overall the past seven day period was quiet, with some minor activity on 5/31-06/01/2006. During the period we experienced 6 hours of active geomagnetic (Kp-4) conditions but the Boulder K index did reach minor geomagnetic storming conditions (Kp-5) for 3 hours.
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s negatively impacted 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 and 12 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s were further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which negatively impacted 10, 12 and 15 meters. However there were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there was east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
There was minor to moderate night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths.
There was minor daytime signal enhancement and minor nighttime signal absorption on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
Globally with the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux level low, reduced F layer MUF’s will negatively impact 10, 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 and 12 meters.
In the Northern Hemisphere MUF’s will be further reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere, which will negatively impact 10, 12 and 15 meters. However there will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters.
In the Southern Hemisphere due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere and therefore higher MUF’s, there will be east-west F layer propagation on 12, 15 and 17 meters. There will be intermittent east-west propagation openings on 10 meters.
The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit :
10883 on 1st but will not enhance F layer propagation.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to Europe and west Asia and also Australia to eastern Asia.
I expect some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 and 12 meters.
I expect moderate to minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths.
I expect minor daytime signal enhancement and nighttime signal absorption on the LF band on high and mid latitude propagation paths.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160, 80, 40 and 30 meters and to a lesser extent on 20 meters.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
06/02-03/2006 Kp 3-4, isolated 5.
06/04-06//2006 Kp 0-2, isolated 3.
06/07-08/2006 Kp-3-4, isolated 5.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled (Kp 3) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period active (Kp 4) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp 5) geomagnetic storming “IS POSSIBLE”.
During the period moderate (Kp 6) geomagnetic storming “IS “IMPROBABLE”.
During the period strong to extreme (Kp-7 9) geomagnetic storming “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “LOW”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “HIGH”, #226 on 06/01-02 and #227 on 06/04-06/2006.
Daily solar flux levels should range between 78-68.
No geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups currently contain a beta-gamma twisted magnetic signature capable producing M and X class solar flares.
The chance of a small C class solar flare is “LOW”.
The chance of a large M class solar flare is “LOW”.
The chance of a huge X class solar flare is “LOW”.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity will be slightly positive (+1 to +3) during the forecast period.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Poor for ham signals and broadcast signals.
Nighttime- Poor for ham signals and fair for broadcast signals.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Fair to Good back to Fair.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect FAIR "Northern Hemisphere"
domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100
miles.
*Expect POOR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths
out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR “Northern Hemisphere”
domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
-Expect GOOD "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect GOOD TO FAIR conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be GOOD.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be POOR TO
FAIR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO
GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
“Low
latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be
FAIR to GOOD.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD TO FAIR.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD TO
FAIR.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp http://www.uspln.com/images/uspln.jpg
A global view of near real time lightning strike data:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded
fronts, associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical
warm core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE" thunderstorm
lightning induced QRN tied to spring season cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical warm core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE"
thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall season cold/warm/occluded fronts
and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and tropical warm
core low pressure systems.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions
can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" thunderstorm lightning induced QRN tied to fall
season cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low
pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 05/26-06/01/2006
Sunspot Groups-
No sunspot group contained a beta-gamma or delta twisted magnetic signature that produced M or X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 77.1 to 84.7
SEC Sunspot Number- 11 to 78
Solar Wind Speed- 275 to 575
Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- A2.1 to A4.3
Dst Index- -5 to +10 via G3NYK
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV
(10+o)- 0
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections-0
Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 1 #226
No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0-18.
The Kp index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The Boulder mid latitude K index had been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
The high latitude K index had been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
5.)
Coronal Hole-
The corona is not part of the Sun's surface. It is instead part of the Sun's
atmosphere, much like Earth's troposphere. Coronal holes are low density areas
associated with open magnetic field lines and are found near the Sun's poles at
the bottom of a sunspot cycle and everywhere during a cycle maximum. A coronal
hole is a dark region where a breakdown in the magnetic field structure in the
solar corona has occurred. From these regions stream the high velocity solar
wind and are a source of geomagnetic storming on Earth.
Coronal holes occur most often on the downside of a solar cycle and their absence at the bottom of a solar cycle and at the beginning of the next, allow for the best LF and MF radio propagation conditions. Many think it's the lower solar flux values seen at the bottom of a solar cycle that accounts for improved propagation conditions but it's actually pretty much a lack of coronal holes and geomagnetic storming. (See definition #11. Geomagnetic/Ionospheric Storm).
One thing to keep in mind is that the high velocity solar wind stream emanating from a coronal hole is a neutral phenomena with respect to the Bz (magnetic component) of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). If the Bz component is negative (southward) prior to arrival of the solar stream, there will exist a tendency to see a larger swing negative after the disturbance arrives. If the Bz component is positive (northward) prior to arrival of the solar stream, there will exist a tendency to see a larger swing positive after the disturbance arrives.
SPACE WEATHER SCALES-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-004
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Thursday 05/25/2006 At 1800 UTC Valid 05/26-06/01/2006
DISCUSSION-
Overall the past seven day period was quiet. During the period we experienced only 3 hours of active geomagnetic (Kp-4) conditions.
Due to the continued low daily sunspot count we experienced reduced F layer MUF’s that negatively impacted 10, 12 and 15 meters. There were some major Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 and 12 meters.
In the northern hemisphere MUF’s were also reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere.
However there were intermittent east-west propagation openings on 17 meters. On 05/24/2006 at 1758 UTC I worked UT7IA in the Ukraine on 18130.0 kc
There was minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths.
There was minor daytime signal enhancement and nighttime signal absorption on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths
However here in Florida I did copy the follow European and African longwave broadcast stations on 05/23/2006:
153 kc Algeria, 162 kc France, 171 kc Morocco, 183 kc Germany, 198 kc England.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40 and to a lesser extent on 30 and 20 meters. With the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux on the decline and also due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer we will not see any appreciable east-west F layer propagation in the Northern Hemisphere on 12 and 15 meters due to lower MUF’s. There will be isolated occurrences on 17 meters.
We will see some east-west F layer propagation in the Southern Hemisphere on 12, 15 and 17 meters due to higher MUF’s.
The following old sunspot groups may rotate around the east limb of the Sun during the forecast period if they survived the back side transit :
10878 on 25th, 10882 on 26th, 10880 on 29th, 10881 on 31st, 10883 on 1st.
Old sunspot group #10880 may boost the daily solar flux value to near 90, which would boost east-west F layer propagation conditions on 20 and 17 meters.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to central Asia and Australia to eastern Asia.
I expect some major Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6 meters and to a lesser extent on 10 and 12 meters.
I expect minor to night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths to continue.
I expect no daytime signal enhancement and nighttime signal absorption on the LF band on high and mid latitude propagation paths.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160, 80, 40 and to a lesser extent on 30 and 20 meters.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
05/26/2006 Kp 2-3, isolated 4.
05/27-06/01/2006 Kp 0-2, isolated 3.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled (Kp 3) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period active (Kp 4) geomagnetic conditions “MAY OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp 5) geomagnetic storming “IS POSSIBLE”.
During the period moderate (Kp 6) geomagnetic storming “IS “IMPROBABLE”.
During the period strong to extreme (Kp-7 9) geomagnetic storming “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “LOW”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “LOW but becoming MODERATE”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW but becoming MODERATE”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “HIGH”, #226 on 06/01/2006.
Daily solar flux levels should range between 90-75.
No geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups currently contain a beta-gamma twisted magnetic signature capable producing M and X class solar flares.
The chance of a small C class solar flare is “LOW but becoming MODERATE”.
The chance of a large M class solar flare is “LOW”.
The chance of a huge X class solar flare is “LOW”.
The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity will be slightly negative (-1 to -3) during the forecast period.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC
PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Poor for ham signals and fair for broadcast signals.
Nighttime- Fair for ham signals and good for broadcast signals.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Good.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect FAIR "Northern
Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to
approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect POOR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths
out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR “Northern
Hemisphere” domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately
1100 miles.
-Expect GOOD "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect GOOD conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be GOOD.
"High latitude" Northern
Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross
equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should
be FAIR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Northern
Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross
equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should
be FAIR TO GOOD.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
“Low latitude" Northern
Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR to
GOOD.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to
Southern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200
miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to
Southern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200
miles should be GOOD.
Propagation Forecast
Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN)
OUTLOOK-
U.S. near real time lightning strike data:
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp http://www.uspln.com/images/uspln.jpg
A global view of near real time lightning strike data:
http://flash.ess.washington.edu
During the outlook period there will be "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN tied to spring season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts,
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN tied to spring season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period
there will be "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN, tied to fall season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" lightning induced QRN tied to fall season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 05/19-25/2006
Sunspot Groups-
No sunspot group contained a beta-gamma or delta twisted magnetic signature that produced M or X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 74.7 to 84.8
SEC Sunspot Number- 15 to 44
Solar Wind Speed- 328 to 566
Solar Flares- C-0 M-0
X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- A1.4 to A3.4
Dst Index- -43 to -10 Kyoto, -10 to +15 G3NYK
Elevated Energetic Protons
>10 MeV (10+o)- 0
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections-0
Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 1 #225
No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index has been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0-22.
The Kp index has been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The Boulder mid latitude K index has been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The high latitude K index has been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
4.) Coronal
Mass Ejection (CME)-
A Coronal Mass Ejection is the name given to an ejection of a large amount of
matter from the Sun's outer atmosphere or corona. These ejections typically
comprise millions of tons of material in the form of charged particles, and can
be seen because the material reflects sunlight. When one of these ejections is
directed towards the Earth (or conversely, directly away from the Earth), it
looks like a roughly circular "halo" surrounding the Sun.
The "Halo CME's" then are those CME's which are more likely to impact the Earth
than those which are shot out at right angles to the Earth-Sun line. Energetic
protons emitted during CME's play a major role in increased day time and
night-time D-layer absorption of medium frequencies.
Coronal Mass Ejections were once thought to be completely initiated by solar
flares. However it is now known that many (CME's) are not associated with Solar
Flares but instead with Solar Filaments. If a (CME) collides with the Earth, it
can excite a Geomagnetic Storm if the polarity of the IMF has a negative sign.
We must be vigilant in watching for geo-effective (CME's), in order to not be
caught by surprise with a seemingly sudden and unexpected Geomagnetic Storm.
(See definition #6. Solar Filament). (See definition #11.
Geomagnetic/Ionospheric Storm). (See definition #16. Solar Flare).
Coronal mass ejections are not random meaningless eruptions but instead a process by which the Sun expels complex magnetic signatures enroute to changing it's magnetic polarity or said a different way the swapping of the Sun's magnetic poles. Basically the Sun swapped it magnetic polarity at the peak of present solar cycle 23 somewhere between July 2000 and December 2001. The next polarity swap will occur during solar cycle 24 somewhere around 2010-2011.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-003
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Thursday 05/18/2006 At 1500 UTC Valid 05/19-25/2006
DISCUSSION-
Overall the past seven day period was unsettled to quiet. This was due to a high velocity solar wind stream emanating from recurrent northern hemisphere geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal hole #224, as well as #225. During the period we experienced 15 hours of active geomagnetic (Kp-4) conditions.
Due to the continued low daily sunspot count we experienced reduced MUF’s that negatively impacted 10, 12 and 15 meters. But there were some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6, 10 and 12 meters. In the northern hemisphere MUF’s were also reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere.
There was minor to moderate night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths.
There was minor daytime signal enhancement and nighttime signal absorption on the LF band on high and mid latitude paths.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40, 30 and 20 meters.
With the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux on the decline and also due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer we will not see any appreciable east-west F layer propagation in the Northern Hemisphere on 12 and 15 meters due to lower MUF’s.
We will see some east-west F layer propagation in the Southern Hemisphere on 12 and 15 meters due to higher MUF’s.
Old sunspot group #10875 is now rotating around the east limb of the Sun and should boost the daily solar flux value to near 100, which will boost F layer propagation conditions on 20, 17 and to a lesser extent 15 meters.
Trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to central Asia and Australia to eastern Asia.
I expect minor to moderate night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths to continue.
I expect minor daytime signal enhancement and nighttime signal absorption on the LF band on high and mid latitude propagation paths to continue.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160-20 meters.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
05/19/2006 Kp 2-3, isolated 4.
05/20-21/2006 Kp 3-4, isolated 5.
05/22-25/2006 Kp 1-3.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled to active (Kp 3-4) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp 5) geomagnetic storming “IS POSSIBLE”.
During the period moderate (Kp 6) geomagnetic storming “IS “IMPROBABLE”.
During the period strong to extreme (Kp-7 9) geomagnetic storming “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “LOW”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “LOW but becoming MODERATE”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW but becoming MODERATE”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “HIGH”, #225.
Daily solar flux levels should range between 100-72.
No geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups currently contain a beta-gamma twisted magnetic signature capable producing M and X class solar flares.
The chance of a small C class solar flare is “LOW but becoming MODERATE”.
The chance of a large M class solar flare is “LOW”.
The chance of a huge X class solar flare is “LOW”.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Poor to fair for ham signals and fair to good for broadcast signals .
Nighttime- Poor for ham signals and fair for broadcast signals.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Good to fair.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect FAIR "Northern Hemisphere"
domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100
miles.
*Expect POOR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths
out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR “Northern Hemisphere”
domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
-Expect FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect FAIR conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be FAIR TO GOOD.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be POOR to
FAIR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO GOOD.
“Low
latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be
FAIR to GOOD.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be FAIR to GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be FAIR.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
Sorry but global views of near real time lightning strikes are no longer available.
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp
During the outlook period there will be "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN tied to spring season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts,
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN tied to spring season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the
Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone
(ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN, tied to fall season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" lightning induced QRN tied to fall season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 05/12-17/2006
Sunspot Groups-
No sunspot group contained a beta-gamma or delta twisted magnetic signature that produced M or X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 76-71
SEC Sunspot Number- 38-0
Solar Wind Speed- 687-295
Solar Flares- C-0 M-0 X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- A5.1-A1.4
Dst Index- -49 to -7 Kyoto, -15 to +15 G3NYK
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV
(10+o)- 0
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections-0
Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 2, #’s 224, 225
No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index has been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0-27.
The Kp index has been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The Boulder mid latitude K index has been at quiet to active geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0 to 4.
The high latitude K index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
PROPAGATION LESSON-
3.) Equatorial Ring Current-
A phenomena that acts as a repository for precipitated electrons in the vicinity of the magnetic equator. The electrons travel by spiraling around north south magnetic field lines at a frequency called the gyro frequency. The end result is lower latitude propagation path medium frequency transmitted RF signal blockage absorption via the D layer. Absorption is similar to higher latitude Aurora Oval absorption and is inter-related with same.
A reliable gauge for measuring the up to three day lingering post geomagnetic storming medium frequency transmitted RF absorption is the Dst index, measured in nT's. It is an estimated value from Kyoto Japan and is based on a formula. Large negative values after a major geomagnetic storm indicates a high Equatorial Ring Current level. (See definition #2. Aurora Oval Blockage, Absorption And Refraction). Here is a website link to the Kyoto, Japan Dst Index http://swdcdb.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/dstdir and the U.C. Berkeley website link http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/dst_index and a NASA GSFC website link http://sprg.ssl.berkeley.edu/dst_index . (See definition #2. Aurora Oval Blockage, Absorption And Refraction).
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-002
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Friday 05/12/2006 At 1500 UTC Valid 05/12-18/2006
DISCUSSION-
Overall the past seven day period was unsettled. This was due to high velocity solar wind streams emanating from recurrent northern hemisphere geoeffective (Earth facing) coronal hole #222, as well as coronal hole’s #223A and #223B. During the period we experienced 12 hours of minor geomagnetic storming (Kp-5) and 22 hours of active geomagnetic (Kp-4) conditions.
Due to the continued low daily sunspot count we experienced reduced MUF’s that negatively impacted 10, 12 and 15 meters. But there were some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6, 10 and 12 meters. In the northern hemisphere MUF’s were also reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere.
There was minor to moderate night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths.
There was minor night time signal absorption on the LF band and minor day time signal absorption propagation conditions on high and mid latitude paths.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40, 30 and 20 meters.
With the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux on the decline and also due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer we will not see any appreciable east-west F layer propagation in the Northern Hemisphere on 10, 12 and 15 meters due to lower MUF’s.
However trans-equatorial (TEQ) HF propagation between North and South America will occur, as well between southern Africa to central Asia and Australia to central Asia.
I expect minor to moderate night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths to continue.
I expect minor night time signal absorption on the LF band and minor day time enhanced propagation conditions on high and mid latitude paths.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160-20 meters.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
05/12-13/2006 Kp 3-5.
05/14/2006 Kp 0-3.
05/15-18/2006 Kp 3-5.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled to active (Kp 3-4) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp 5) geomagnetic storming “IS PROBABLE”.
During the period moderate (Kp 6) geomagnetic storming IS “IMPROBABLE”.
During the period strong to extreme (Kp-7 9) geomagnetic storming “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “LOW”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “HIGH”, #224.
Daily solar flux levels should range between 90-70.
No geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups currently contain a beta-gamma twisted magnetic signature capable producing M and X class solar flares.
The chance of a small C class solar flare is “LOW”.
The chance of a large M class solar flare is “LOW”.
The chance of a huge X class solar flare is “LOW”.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Fair to poor.
Nighttime- Poor to fair for ham and broadcast signals.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Good to fair.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect FAIR "Northern Hemisphere"
domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100
miles.
*Expect POOR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths
out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR “Northern Hemisphere”
domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
-Expect FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect FAIR conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be FAIR TO GOOD.
"High latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be POOR to
FAIR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.
"Mid latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA)
Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross equatorial
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR TO GOOD.
“Low
latitude" Northern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans
Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be
FAIR to GOOD.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be FAIR to GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.
Equatorial region to Southern Hemisphere
“high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200 miles should be FAIR.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
Sorry but global views of near real time
lightning strikes are no longer available.
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat_pages/mosaic/CONUS/focus_regions/Full/Overview/lightning/goes/Latest.html
During the outlook period there will be "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced QRN
levels in low latitude areas of the Northern hemisphere due to the proximity of
the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN tied to spring season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts,
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN tied to spring season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
During the outlook period there will be
"HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the
Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone
(ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN, tied to fall season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" lightning induced QRN tied to fall season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 05/04-11/2006
Sunspot Groups-
No sunspot group contained a beta-gamma or delta twisted magnetic signature that produced M or X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 91.8-75.6
SEC Sunspot Number- 69-27
Solar Wind Speed- 692-293
Solar Flares- C-1 M-0 X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- B1.1-A3.8
Dst Index- -67 to -7
Elevated Energetic Protons >10 MeV
(10+o)- 0
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections-0
Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 3, #’S 222, 223A, 223B
No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index has been at quiet to major geomagnetic levels, with a range of 0-56.
The Kp index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
The Boulder mid latitude K index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
The high latitude K index has been at quiet to moderate geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 6.
Propagation Lesson-
2.) Aurora Oval Blockage, Absorption And
Refraction-
The aurora ovals "generally" have a negative impact on medium-frequency
propagation. If the path over which you are communicating lies along or inside
one of the Aurora Ovals, you will experience degraded propagation in one of
several different forms; strong signal absorption, brief periods of strong
signal enhancement, which is mainly caused by tilts in the ionosphere that allow
signals to become focused at your location or very erratic signal behavior in
the form of strong and rapid fading, etc., caused by a variety of effects such
as multi-pathing, anomalous and rapid variations in absorption, non-great-circle
propagation, horizontal or side refraction and/or scatter (skewing) due to
changes in electron density and polarization changes. (See definition #7.
Propagation Path Skewing).
When the Aurora Oval zones are contracted and latitudinally-thin coinciding with
low geomagnetic activity, it is possible for a medium-frequency transmitted
signal to propagate through the Aurora Oval zone without being heavily absorbed
by skirting underneath it.
During periods of very low geomagnetic activity, areas of the Aurora Oval zones
may only have a latitudinal thickness of approximately 300 miles. But radio
signals reflected from the E-layer can travel over distances of as much as 300
to 1250 miles at heights below the ionosphere for low take-off angles of between
10 and 25 degrees. When the geometry is just right, the medium-frequency
transmitted signal can literally propagate underneath and through the Aurora
Oval zones into the polar ionosphere which is less disturbed and from the polar
ionosphere back into the middle latitude ionosphere, without ever coming in
contact with the highly absorptive Aurora Ionosphere. This type of propagation
is not as rare as you might think and it can provide unusually stable polar
region path openings to (TA) Transatlantic and (TP) Transpacific regions. But
because the Aurora Oval zone expands and contracts constantly, such conditions
often do not last very long. (See definition #3. Equatorial Ring Current).
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
Standard Disclaimer-
Note! I use "RAW" public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as
well as other U.S. government organizations, to produce my "not for profit"
propagation forecast outlooks. This data is gathered and made public by the U.S.
Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks that I produce from
the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2006 by Thomas
F. Giella, KN4LF. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as
proper credit is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are not official but for educational purposes only and
are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty
implied.
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2006-001
Published Thursday 05/11/2006 At 1513 UTC
KN4LF Daily LF/MF/HF Radio Propagation Outlook #2005-016
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf5.htm http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6.htm
Date Format is MM/DD/YYYY
Published Thursday 04/21/2005 At 2200 UTC Valid 04/22-28/200505
DISCUSSION-
Overall the past seven day period was quiet. However due to a high velocity solar wind stream emanating from recurrent northern hemisphere geoeffective coronal hole #158, we have seen a brief period of minor geomagnetic storming today. Today has seen 3 hours of minor geomagnetic storming (Kp-5) and 12 hours of active geomagnetic (Kp-4) conditions.
Due to the continued low daily sunspot count we experienced reduced MUF’s that negatively impacted 10, 12 and 15 meters. But there were some Sporadic E (Es) openings on 6, 10 and 12 meters.
In the northern hemisphere MUF’s were also reduced due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer of the ionosphere.
There was minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths.
There was minor night time signal absorption on the LF band and minor day time enhanced propagation conditions on high latitude paths.
At times intense lightning QRN hampered receive conditions on 160, 80, 40, 30 and 20 meters.
With the daily sunspot number and vaguely related solar flux on the decline and also due to seasonal chemical changes in the F layer we will not see any appreciable east-west F layer propagation in the Northern Hemisphere on 10, 12 and 15 meters due to lower MUF’s.
However trans-equatorial HF propagation between South America and Europe will occur, as well between southern Africa to central Asia and Australia to central Asia.
I expect minor night time signal absorption on the MF AM broadcast band, 160 and 120 meters on high latitude propagation paths to continue.
I expect minor night time signal absorption on the LF band and minor day time enhanced propagation conditions on high latitude paths to continue.
Occasionally high lightning QRN levels will continue to plague amateur and SWL radio operations on 160-20 meters thanks to the continuing weak El Nino, mainly in eastern Oceania and North and South America, including the Caribbean.
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
04/22-23/2005 Kp 4-5.
04/24/2005 Kp 3-4.
04/25-28/2005 Kp 0-3.
During the period quiet (Kp 0-2) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period unsettled to active (Kp 3-4) geomagnetic conditions “WILL OCCUR”.
During the period minor (Kp 5) geomagnetic storming “IS PROBABLE”.
During the period moderate (Kp 6) geomagnetic storming is “POSSIBLE”.
During the period strong to extreme (Kp-7 9) geomagnetic storming “WILL NOT OCCUR”.
The chance of polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0) is “LOW”.
The chance of daylight side SID radio blackouts from solar flares is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is “LOW”.
The chance of a geoeffective (Earth facing) Coronal Hole is “HIGH”, #’s 158, 159, 160.
Daily solar flux levels should range between 80-70.
No geoeffective (Earth Facing) sunspot groups currently contain a beta-gamma twisted magnetic signature capable producing M and X class solar flares.
The chance of a small C class solar flare is MEDIUM”.
The chance of a large M class solar flare is “LOW”.
The chance of a huge X class solar flare is “LOW”.
Propagation Forecast Scales-
LOW- 25%
MEDIUM- 50%
HIGH- 75%
GLOBAL LF 30-300 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Daytime- Fair to poor.
Nighttime- Poor to fair for ham signals, fair to good for broadcast signals.
GLOBAL HF 3000-30000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED-
Low: 0-25 degrees
Mid: 25-60 degrees
High: 60-90 degrees
Low Latitude- Good.
Mid Latitude- Good.
High Latitude- Good to fair.
GLOBAL MF 300-3000 KC PROPAGATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE MF AM BROADCAST BAND, 160 METERS AND 120 METERS-
-Expect POOR TO FAIR
"Northern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to
approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect POOR TO FAIR “Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on north "TO"
south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect GOOD TO FAIR
“Northern Hemisphere” domestic conditions on south "TO" north paths out to
approximately 1100.
-Expect POOR TO FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic propagation conditions on east-west paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
+Expect GOOD TO FAIR "Southern Hemisphere" domestic conditions on north "TO" south paths out to approximately 1100 miles.
*Expect POOR TO FAIR conditions on south "TO" north paths in the "Southern Hemisphere" out to approximately 1100 miles.
Equatorial region domestic propagation conditions out to approximately 1100 miles should be FAIR.
"High latitude" Northern
Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross
equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should
be POOR to FAIR.
"High latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be POOR to FAIR.
"Mid latitude" Northern
Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific and cross
equatorial propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should
be FAIR.
"Mid latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific and cross equatorial propagation conditions in excess of
approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.
“Low latitude" Northern
Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP) Trans Pacific
propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR to
GOOD.
"Low latitude" Southern Hemisphere (TA) Trans Atlantic, (TI) Trans Indian, (TP)
Trans Pacific propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles
should be FAIR to GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to
Southern Hemisphere “mid latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200
miles should be GOOD.
Equatorial region to Northern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of approximately 3200 miles should be FAIR.
Equatorial region to
Southern Hemisphere “high latitude” propagation conditions in excess of 3200
miles should be FAIR.
Propagation Forecast
Scales-
Excellent- +1 db Over S9 Or better
Good- S7-9
Fair- S4-6
Poor- S1-3
GLOBAL NOISE (QRN) OUTLOOK-
U.S. LIGHTNING STRIKE DATA
(See Where Your QRN Is Coming From)
Sorry but global views of
near real time lightning strikes are no longer available.
https://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/tux/jsp/explorer/explorer.jsp
During the 7 day outlook period there will be “HIGH TO MODERATE” lightning
induced QRN levels in low latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere tied to
winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts, associated
extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and El Nino.
Northern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect “HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts,
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and El Nino.
Northern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" lightning
induced QRN tied to winter season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and
associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems and El Nino.
During the outlook period
there will be "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning induced QRN levels in low latitude
areas of the Southern Hemisphere due to the proximity of the Inter Tropical
Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere mid latitude regions can expect "HIGH TO MODERATE" lightning
induced QRN, tied to summer season thunderstorms and tropical cyclones.
Southern hemisphere high latitude regions can expect "MODERATE TO LOW" lightning induced QRN tied to summer season thunderstorms, cold/warm/occluded fronts and associated extra-tropical cold core low pressure systems.
END OF OUTLOOK
SOLAR, SPACE WEATHER AND GEOMAGNETIC INDICES FOR THE PERIOD 04/15-21/2005
Sunspot Groups-
No sunspot group contained a beta-gamma or delta twisted magnetic signature that produced M or X class solar flares.
Solar Flux Readings- 85.4-77.0. My forecast was for 90-75
SEC Sunspot Number- 61-39
Solar Wind Speed- 550-322
Solar Flares- C-3 M-0
X-0
Averaged Daily Background X-Ray Flux- A5.5- A2.5
Dst Index- -55 to +14
Elevated Energetic Protons
>10 MeV (10+o)- 0
Geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections- 0
Partially geoeffective (Earth Facing) Coronal Mass Ejections-0
Geoeffective Coronal Holes- 2, #’S 157, 158
No polar cap absorption on high latitude propagation paths occurred due to excessive energetic protons >10 Mev (10+0).
The Ap index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic levels, with a range of 3-48.
The Kp index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 1 to 5.
The Boulder mid latitude K index has been at quiet to minor geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 5.
The high latitude K index has been at quiet to moderate geomagnetic storming levels, with a range of 0 to 6.
TODAY'S PROPAGATION LESSON –
20.) Sudden
Stratospheric Warming (STRATWARM ALERT)-
Sudden stratospheric warming is a major temperature change of the winter time
polar and middle atmosphere from the Tropopause (where the troposphere
transitions into the stratosphere) to the base (D-layer) of the ionosphere,
lasting for many days at a time and characterized by a warming of the
stratospheric temperature by some tens of degrees (temperature inversion), in
unison with adjacent tropospheric cooling.
Another way to explain stratospheric warming is a major disturbance of the
winter polar middle atmosphere from the Tropopause to D-region which is at the
base of the Mesosphere resulting from a breakdown of the polar vortex into two
circulation cells. Air trapped in the vortexes is mixed by the new meridional
flow and is exposed to sunlight. Solar lyman alpha ionizes the nitric oxide
gasses resulting in an increase in electron density and producing strong MF and
HF absorption.
A little related Troposphere Meteorology:
Interrelated with the splitting and shifting of the Arctic Circumpolar Vortex,
is a Troposphere level negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and
Pacific-North America Anomaly (PNA), mid and upper air height anomaly pattern.
This equates to a large high pressure ridge in Western North America extending
northward all the way into the Yukon region of Canada and a deep trough in the
Eastern North America, from the eastern U.S. extending down into the Yucatan
region of Mexico, with a second ridge in the western North Atlantic Ocean. This
pattern is also called a dual blocking ridge and taps Siberian Arctic air,
sending it across the North Pole into the eastern 2/3's of Canada and the U.S.
providing for very cold surface temperatures.
As the stratosphere lies below the ionosphere, which is at mesosphere and
thermosphere height, you would not expect to see stratospheric warming effect
medium frequency propagation in any way BUT medium frequency signals do
propagate off of temperature inversions and moisture discontinuities and a
temperature inversion is involved with stratospheric warming. So it's probable
that a medium frequency signal could do any number of things when scattering off
of a temperature inversion, at any height. Unfortunately though some otherwise
very knowledgeable Physicists stubbornly resist this concept.
You can almost always correlate the coldest weather occurrences with poor medium
frequency propagation conditions.
Also Stratospheric Warming (STRATWARM) has a negative effect on medium frequency
propagation, due to increasing medium frequency radio wave absorption by the D
layer, via upward propagating Internal Buoyancy/Gravity Waves (IBGW's).
This phenomenon also occurs in southern hemisphere winter but is less
pronounced.
Click Here For The U. Of Berlin Germany Stratospheric Research Group Layer
For more information go to
KN4LF LF/MF/HF Frequency Radio Propagation Theory Notes at
http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf8.htm .
***Here are some "general"
guidelines concerning correlation of propagation indices to actual expected
HF/MF propagation conditions.
1.) Dropping indices numbers are better, with the exception of solar flux and
sunspot number on HF.
2.) For medium frequencies a solar flux under 150, under 100 better, 70 is best for E layer multi hop. For high frequencies over 125 is good, over 150 is better, over 200 is best.
Keep in mind though that
at medium frequencies the 10.7 cm (2800 mhz) solar flux index is not a
"reliable" gauge of ionization in our atmosphere, as the energy of photons at
this frequency is to low on the order of one million times. However most are
used to solar flux and sunspot number and it's a hard habit to break. A better
indicator is the background x-ray flux. See #7.
3.) Solar flux of at least 100 for E valley-F layer ducting mechanism.
4.) Previous 24 hour Ap index under 10, under 7 for several days
consecutively is best.
5.) Previous 3 hour Kp index under 3 for mid latitude paths, under 2 for high
latitude paths, 0-1 for several days consecutively is best.
6.) Energetic protons no greater then 10 MeV (10+0) for 160/120 meters and no
greater then (10-1) on MF AM broadcast band.
7.) Background x-ray flux levels less than C1 for several days consecutively for
160/120 meters and less then B9 for MF broadcast band but A9 or less is best.
8.) No current STRATWARM alert.
9.) IMF Bz with a (+) sign, indicates a lesser chance of high latitude path
auroral absorption/unpredictable refraction or scattering of MF RF signals, when
the Kp is above 3.
10.) A -50 or better towards a positive number Dst index during the recovery
time after a geomagnetic storm, as related to the Equatorial Ring Current.
Space Weather Scales-
Kp Indices-
G5 = Extreme Storm - Kp = 9
G4 = Severe Storm - Kp = 8
G3 = Strong Storm - Kp = 7
G2 = Moderate Storm - Kp = 6
G1 = Minor Storm - Kp = 5
Active - Kp = 4
Unsettled - Kp = 3
Ap Indices-
Ap 100-400 Severe Storm
Ap 50-99 Major Storm
Ap 30-49 Minor Storm
Ap 16-29 Active
Ap 8-15 Unsettled
Ap 0-7 Quiet
Correlation Of Kp To Ap Indices-
K- 0= A- 0
K- 1= A- 3
K- 2= A- 7
K- 3= A- 15
K- 4= A- 27
K- 5= A- 48
K- 6= A- 80
K- 7= A- 140
K- 8= A- 240
K- 9= A- 400
Note! I use "RAW" and error prone public domain data from the NOAA Space Environment Center, as well as other U.S.
Government organizations, to produce my
"not for profit" propagation forecast outlooks. This data is
gathered and made public by the U.S. Government using taxpayer $$$. However the forecast outlooks
that I produce from the "RAW" public domain data, is my personal intellectual property. Therefore
the propagation outlooks contained herein is copyrighted © 1988-2006 by Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF,
all rights reserved. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.
Also space weather forecasting is still an inexact science. The discussions,
forecasts and outlooks are
not official but for educational purposes
only and are subject to human error and acts
of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied.
